两种模型在地下水埋深预测中的应用及对比研究

Application and Comparison Study of Two Models for Groundwater Depth Prediction

为能够更好地预测地下水埋深及合理规划、开发地下水资源,简述BP-ANN和GM(1,1)模型的基本结构和建模步骤,以长春市体育馆旁长观井(1号井)2002-2010年的地下水埋深资料为基础,分别运用两种方法模拟并预测地下水埋深,并进行对比研究,最后得出如下结论,BP-ANN和GM(1,1)模型的平均相对误差分别为0.55%和3.45%,其对2011年的地下水埋深预测值分别为13.06、13.27m,两种模型的拟合和预测精度均较高,两种方法均可用于地下水埋深预测,其中GM(1,1)建模更简单,BP-ANN精度更高。

In order to better predict groundwater depth, rationally plan and develop groundwater resources, this paper briefly intro- duces the basic structures and modeling steps of BP-ANN model and GM （1,1） model. Based on the data of groundwater depth in 2002-2010 year of long view well （No. 1 well）, which is next to the stadium of Changchun city, two kinds of methods are used to simulate and predict the groundwater depth, and then the comparative study is conducted. In the end, the conclusion is drawn as fol- lowing： the average relative errors of two models are 0. 55% and 3.45%, respectively; the prediction values for groundwater depth of 2011 are 13. 06 and 13. 27, respectively; the fitting and forecasting precision of two kinds model are both higher; both the two methods can be used to predict groundwater depth, while the GM （1, 1） model is more simpler and the BP-ANN model has higher accuracy.