水资源承载力综合评价的变权灰色关联模型

Variable-weight and Grey Correlation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Comprehensive Assessment

以灰色系统理论为基础,建立变权灰色关联模型评价区域水资源承载力。在阐述水资源承载力概念的基础上,构建三江平原水资源承载力评价指标体系,确定指标等级标准。将待评价区域的实测指标数列和等级标准数列分别作为比较数列和参考数列,由灰色关联评价理论,计算比较数列与参考数列的联系系数,由变权法确定权重,计算联系度,根据最大关联度原则判断水资源承载力的等级。将此模型应用于三江平原,评价三江平原8个区域的水资源承载力状况,结果表明:2008年三江平原水资源承载力等级为Ⅲ级,其中鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、佳木斯市和依兰县属于第Ⅲ等级,水资源承载力处于中等水平,水资源与社会经济发展处于平衡状态;七台河市属于Ⅱ级,水资源承载力为弱无压力状态;穆棱市属于Ⅰ级,水资源承载力为强无压力状态。与投影寻踪评价模型对比分析,评价结果基本一致,表明模型有效可行,成果合理可靠。建立变权灰色关联评价模型,以期为水资源承载力评价提供一种实用可行的评价模型。

In this study, based on the grey correlation theory, a variable-weight and grey correlation model for assessing the regional water resources carrying capacity is set up. Beginning with expounding the concept of water resources carrying capacity, the indica- tors system for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Sanjiang plain is established and the index grades standards are de- termined. Taking the measured index sequence and the grade standard sequence as comparative sequence and reference sequence, re- spectively, the correlation coefficient of comparative sequence and reference sequence is calculated according to the grey correlation assessment theory. Based on the variable- weight and correlation coefficient, the correlation degree is calculated, and the water re- sources carrying capacity grade is appraised according to the maximum correlation-degree law. Then the proposed model is applied to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Sanjiang plian, and the results show that the grade of water resources carrying capaci- ty of Sanjiang plain is grade III now. Thereinto, the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Jixi city, Hegang city, Shuangyas- han city, Jianmusi city and Yilan county, belongings to the medium level, and the socio-economic development level is in equilibrium with water system the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Qitaihe city is at the grade Ⅱ ,which belongings to the less pres- sure state the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Muling city is at grade Ⅰ , which belongings to the least pressure state. Compared with the results of the projection pursuit evaluation model, the assessment results of the proposed model are similar, which implies the feasibility of the model and the reliability of the results. The variable-weight and grey correlation model will pro- vide a practicable and feasible method for assessing water resources carrying capacity.