产业结构变动对我国经济增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Industrial Structure on Economic Growth of Our Country

分析1952—2011年我国经济增长趋势和产业结构变化的关系,深入探讨产业结构变动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,在不同经济体制下经济增长和产业结构变化所表现的特征差异较大。改革开放前的计划经济体制下产业结构和经济增长变动频率和幅度均很大;改革开放后随着市场化进程的推进,产业结构逐渐向高级化和合理化发展,经济长期保持稳定的快速增长。产业结构高级化对我国经济增长有显著的正向促进作用,而产业结构合理化对经济增长的影响相对弱很多,第二产业是保持经济稳定增长的关键。

The article analyzes the relationship between China~ economic growth and the evolution of industrial structure from 1952 to 2011. The results of the studies show that： in different economic system, economic growth and industrial structure have obviously different characteristics. Before the reform and open policy, economic growth and industrial structure changed frequently, and fluctuation range was big under the planning economic system. After the reform and o- pening, along with the progress of marketization, both tend to be stable. The industrial structure gradually develops to better grade and rationalization, and economy grows rapidly. High -level industrial structure has significant positive role to the economic growth, and rationalization of industrial structure has weak effect on the economic growth. The second in- dustry is the key to keep the steady economic growth.