一个新的社会稳定风险评估分析框架：风险感知的视角

A New Social Stability Risk Assessment Analysis Framework:Risk Perception Perspective

主流风险评估强调成本—收益分析、环境风险分析等经济、环境层面评估,忽视对公众风险感知的心理、文化层面的分析与评估,致使作为风险承担者的公众被排斥在风险管理和决策之外。从风险感知视角构建社会稳定风险评估分析框架,有助于揭示社会风险产生的内在机理和演进逻辑,弥补有关公众风险感知评估内容的缺失。北京六里屯垃圾填埋场个案研究表明,公众的心理焦虑、信任、社会经济背景等变量与公众抗争意愿具有一定的相关性,女性、本地人、年轻人、低教育程度者、较高收入者、居住年限较长者的抗争意愿更强;焦虑程度越高者、感知到的负面风险越大者、对风险设施运营方越是不信任者,抗争意愿越强。

The current mainstream of cost--benefit analysis and risk assessment focuses on environmental risk analysis of the evaluation on the level of economy and environment, ignoring the risk to the public perception of psychology （such as anxiety, fear, et al..）, culture （trust, social economic background, et al..）, and thus resulting that risk takers （the public） are excluded from decision--making in risk management. So this is a major defect of the current social stability risk assessment. Building a new social stability from the perspective of risk perception of risk assessment analysis framework will help to reveal the inner mechanism of the social risk occurs and evolution logic, as well as to make up of the social risk assessment for the lack of public risk perception evaluation .content. Liulitun landfill sites in Beijing case study shows that the public psychological worry, trust, and social and economic background （such as gender, age, income, et al..）of variable factors and the public protests will have a certain correlation. Female, native, young people, low education, socioeconomic status, high earners, and living longer will have stronger struggle intend; the higher worry degree is, the greater the risk perceived. The more negative risk perceived, and the less mistrust in facility operator, the stronger the struggle will be. And the empirical results confirmed the new analysis framework.