二十一世纪我国防洪减灾领域重大科技问题的展望

Prospects for Major Research Topics on Flood Control and Mitigation of China in the 21st Century

过去的百年，人类运用蓬勃发展的水利科学知识与工程技术手段，使防御与控制洪水的能力得到了空前提高． 然而，随着社会经济发展与自然环境变化，洪灾损失仍在上升，治水这一古老的问题正在变得更为复杂严峻． 新世纪之初，我国人口继续增长、城市化加速、粮食与土地需求压力加大，现有防洪能力与全社会日益提高的防洪安全保障需求不相适应的矛盾仍将加剧． 防洪减灾将更加依赖于科技进步． 本文提出我国防洪战略调整时期必将面对的若干重大问题，探讨解决问题的思路．

 By using of the sciences and technologies in hydraulic engineering that have made amazing progresses in the past century，people have greatly enhanced their abilities in flood control． However，along with the rapid development of societies and economics，flood damages have been arising，and the age-old problem of flood control becomes more intricate and severe． In the initial stage of the new century，the trend of continued growth of population，accelerated urbanization and increased pressure of food and land demands will keep aggravating the conflict that the present flood control capacities are inconsistent with the increasing requirements of flood prevention and safeguard from the societies． Flood control and mitigation will further depend upon the advance of science and technology． Some major issues that we have to be faced during the period of flood control strategy adjustment are put forward， and the routes of settlement are discussed．