现金流操控的短期美化效果和长期危害——上市公司现金流操控的经济后果研究

Short-term Decoration and Long-term Damage of Cash Flow Manipulation——Research on Economic Consequence of Cash flow Manipulations in Listed Companies

以1999-2011年A股上市公司为样本，实证检验了上市公司现金流操控的经济后果。结果表明，现金流操控虽然提升了公司当期业绩，但有损于未来业绩，经济后果严重。进一步的研究显示，与维持动机相比，具有微正动机和迎合动机的现金流操控对未来业绩的不利影响更大。因此，投资者对于现金流为微正以及达到分析师预测值的公司报告要更加重视和加以甄别。

Using distribution of cash flow and multiple regressions, this paper finds that cash flow manipulation enhances the cur- rent performance of listed companies but damages the future performance, and leads to adverse long term economic consequence. Fur- thermore, this paper finds that the cash flow manipulation both under the small positive motivation and the meeting analysts＇ forecast motivation have more adverse effects than under the sustain motivation. So we remind the investors to pay more attention to the annual reports of the companies whose cash flow is slightly positive or meetinz analysts＇ forecast.