中国城市人口增长来源构成及其对城市化的贡献：1991-2010

The Growth Composition of Urban Population in China and Its Contribution to Urbanisation:1991-2010

城市不同来源的人口增长意味着城市化的不同路径和涵义。文章研究发现,20世纪90年代初期,在城市人口增长中区划变动增长规模最大,迁移增长最小,自然增长居中,但总体上均规模不大,差异较小。经济改革的不断深化及其所带来的城市的快速发展,使城市三大来源的人口增长规模均呈增大趋势,特别是迁移增长规模迅速增大,1996年一跃成为城市人口增长的第一来源和提升城市化率的第一因素。到2010年,城市迁移增长人口对城市化发展20年的累计贡献度迅速提高到15.24个百分点,已接近城市增长人口累计贡献的56%,分别是同期自然增长人口及行政区划变动增长人口的4.27倍和1.80倍。

The growth of urban population from different sources shows different paths and meanings of urbanisation.This paper reveals that,in the early 1990 s,urban population led by administrative zone changes occupied the largest share of urbanisation,followed by natural growth and internal migration,and all of those were at very low levels and had few differentials.As the reforms forwarded and urban development fastened,the volumes of three ways of urban population growth had showed a great upward,especially the rapid growth of the internal migration that became the biggest factor to expand urban population and urbanisation in 1996.The accumulative contribution of migration to urbanisation from 1991 to 2010 has arrived at 15.24 percent,accounting for almost 56% of all accumulative contribution led by urban population growth,which was 4.27 times the contribution of natural growth and 1.80 times that of administrative zone changes during the period.