人口年龄结构、就业水平与中等收入陷阱的跨越——基于29个国家和地区的实证分析

Population Age Structure,Employment and Escaping from the Middle Income Trap:An Empirical Analysis of 29 Countries

保持一定的经济增长速度是跨越中等收入陷阱的必要条件。在中等收入阶段，跨越陷阱经济体的人均GDP增速明显高于落入陷阱经济体。文章通过对5个跨越和24个落入中等收入陷阱国家或地区人均GDP增长率的分解与比较，结果发现，虽然劳动生产率的增长是人均GDP增长的关键因素，但人口红利的作用不容忽视。在中等收入阶段，劳动年龄人口比重的变化对两种类型经济体人均GDP增速差距的贡献为0．53～0．57个百分点，而就业水平变化的贡献为0．62～0．98个百分点。进入上中等收入发展阶段后，中国劳动年龄人口比重和就业水平的下降对人均GDP增长的直接阻碍作用不大，但必须警惕其对劳动生产率增长的负面冲击。

A necessary condition to escape the middle income trap is to maintain a certain rate of economic growth.In middle-income stage,the growth rate of per capita GDP is significantly higher in the escaped economies than in the fallen economies.This paper compares the growth rate of per capita GDP of five escaped countries and regions to that of twenty-four fallen countries and regions.The results show that although the growth of labour productivity is the key of the growth of per capita GDP,the demographic dividend can't be ignored.In middle-income stage,the contribution of the change in the proportion of the working age population to the gap of the growth rate of per capita GDP between two types of economies is 0.53 percent to 0.57 percent while this contribution of the change in employment rate is 0.62 percent to 0.98 percent.When China entered the upper middle-income stage,the direct effect of the decline of the proportion of working-age population and employment rate on the growth of per capita GDP is not big,but China must maintain vigilant of its negative impact on the growth of labour productivity.