世界炼油行业2013年回顾与趋势展望

Global developments and trends in the oil refining industry

2013年世界炼油能力小幅增长,总能力达到45.88亿吨,同比增加1010万吨,新增能力主要来自中国和中东;炼厂加工量小幅回升,达到金融危机以来的新高;炼厂开工率小幅下滑,总体仍在低位徘徊;炼油毛利总体水平下降。北美成为全球最具竞争力的地区,炼油商扩能改造以加工页岩油;欧洲炼油商成本上升、利润下降,供需结构不平衡依然存在;亚太炼油能力持续增加,市场竞争加剧;中东计划扩大炼油能力,沙特阿美有望成为全球最大炼油商;拉美炼厂扩能改造加工重质原油,生产低硫油品;世界油品质量日趋严格,不少国家和地区计划升级清洁燃料标准;世界各地新建炼油项目进展缓慢,继续延期。预计2014年仍将有一批新建和扩建炼油项目投产,世界净增炼油能力约4500万吨;2013-2018年,全球新增能力将达到4.75亿吨,主要来自中国、印度和中东等,世界炼油重心继续东移。2014年世界炼油行业毛利继续承压,炼厂开工率仍维持低位,并面临更大的清洁燃料和环境压力。

World refining capacity grew slightly in 2013 to 4588 million tons, 10.1 million more than the previous year, with most of the newly increased capacity coming from China and the Middle East. Refinery capacity reached the highest level since the financial crisis. The average operating rate of refineries declined slightly and continued fluctuating at a low level on the whole. The refining margin contracted. North America will become the oilrefining area with the world's most competitive edge, with refiners expanding or upgrading to use shale oil. Refiners' costs in Europe increased and drove profit down, supply-demand imbalance still exists, refining capacity in Asia continues to increase, and competition is becoming fiercer; Middle Eastern countries plan to expand refining capacity, and Saudi Aramco has the potential to become the world's largest refiner. Latin American refineries are expanding and upgrading to process heavy oil and produce low-sulfur oil products. World oil product quality standards are becoming stricter and many countries plan to upgrade their clean fuel standards, the refinery building process is slowing down and most building continues to be delayed. Some new or expanded projects are expected to go into production in 2014 and the net increase in capacity will reach 45 million tons per year. Additional refining capacity will reach 475 million tons in 2013-2018, with the world refining center of gravity continuing to move eastward. The refining margin will be under pressure in 2014 and operations will stay at a low level as the world refining industry faces more pressure from clean fuel and the environment.