电气设备故障率演化推算综合算法

Synthesis algorithm of electrical equipment failure rate evolution

为了解决统计分析所得的电气设备故障率中,存在的由于数据量少而导致可信度低的问题,以及设备长期运行下忽略设备在状态检修前后故障率变化的缺点,通过设备的健康状态推算当前状态下的设备故障率;采用LMarquardt算法推求设备基于威布尔分布的故障率函数,进而确定状态检修后设备的实际役龄;通过引入基于役龄递减因子和故障率递增因子的混合式故障率演化算法,提出设备故障率推算综合方法,实现了电气设备状态检修前后的故障率预测.通过算例分析说明该方法的有效性.

In order to solve the problem of low reliability that exists in statistical analysis of the electrical equipment failure rate due to little amount of data, as well as the neglect of weakness on the equipment failure rate changes during the condition-based maintenance in long running term; the health status is used to extrapolate the current equipment failure rate. The L-Marquardt algorithm is adopted to derive the equipment failure rate function based on Weibull distribution; and then the actual age is determined. The synthesis algorithm of equipment failure rate evolution is developed by introducing the hybrid failure rate recursion algorithm based on the concept of age reduction factor and failure rate increasing factor; and then to realize the failure rate prediction of electrical equipment after condition-based maintenance. Analysis of example shows the effectiveness of this method.