生产性服务业发展途径、动力与限制因素:基于制造业出口的引致需求视角分析

Approach to Development,Motive Force and Limiting Factors of the Producer Service Industry:Analysis Based on Manufacturing Exports Caused by Induced Demand

发展生产性服务业已经成为经济转型的重点话题,引致需求的角度能够提供一个深入了解生产性服务业发展规律的准确视角。从经验分析出发,运用投入产出模型与多层线性模型,得到以下结论:制造业发展高度不够所导致高品质有效需求不足,是生产性服务业发展缓慢的主要原因;目前制造业投资仍是生产性服务需求扩大的主要动力,但出口作用的潜力较大;从异质性角度出发,不同制造业类型对生产性服务业发展的拉动作用存在差异,我国目前的制造业结构不利于生产性服务业进一步发展。

The view of induced demand provides a more accurate perspective to further understand the de- velopment of producer services--a focal point in economic transition. Through the input-output model and empirical analysis,the conclusions are drawn as follows： the main reason of slow developing speed in pro- ducer services is that the development of the manufacturing industry was not so highly developed as to cause a high-quality effective demand for producer services. Manufacturing exports have greater potential to stimulate the development of producer services; investment role at this stage is still evident,but the lack of investment direction and content does also exist. Different types of manufacturing have different pulling ef- fects on productive service,and the structure of current manufacturing sector is not conducive to the further development of producer services.