低碳经济下中国碳排放强度收敛性的实证检验

An Empirical Study of the Convergence of Carbon Intensity in China

在全球气候变暖的背景下,以低能耗、低污染为基础的"低碳经济"已成为全球关注的焦点,而我国经济社会的发展和环境质量之间的矛盾也日益突出。基于Philips和Sul(2007,2009)提出的俱乐部收敛检验方法,对我国1995—2011年间的碳排放强度的收敛性及其决定因素进行实证研究。结果表明,我国碳排放强度整体上显著发散,但存在三个收敛俱乐部。根据逻辑排序模型对面板数据模型进行估计,结果发现,初始能源资源禀赋、城市化水平、能源强度以及能源消费结构等都是俱乐部形成的重要因素。降低我国的二氧化碳排放水平,必须从节能和技术的转变入手,提高能源利用效率。具有相同的碳排放收敛趋势的地区,则应该充分合作,发挥各自的优势,共同治理由于碳排放增加而造成的污染问题。

In the context of global warming, ＂low-carbon economy＂ on the basis of low energy consumption and low pollution has been the focus of global attention. The contradiction between economic development and environmental quality in our country is becoming increasingly conspicuous. This paper employs the club convergence testing method developed by Philips and Sul （2007,2009） to conduct an empirical study of the convergence of carbon intensity and its determinants dur- ing 1995-2011 across China. The results reveal that despite a significant divergence in China＇s carbon intensity on the whole, there exist three convergence clubs. Estimations from processing the panel data by the model of ordered logit regres- sion reveal that such factors as initial resource endowments, level of urbanization, energy intensity, and structure of energy consumption are important for the formation of convergence clubs. To reduce CO2 emission in our country, we must start from energy conservation and technological innovation to enhancing the efficiency of energy. It is suggested that those re- gions with the same tendency of convergence in carbon emission should cooperate with each other and tap their respective advantages in order to solve problem of pollution resulting from the increase of carbon emission.