基于CGE模型的产业结构调整路径选择与节能减排效应关系研究

Research on the Path Selection of Industrial Structure Adjustment and Effect of Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction Based on CGE Model

不同的产业结构调整路径产生不同的经济效益与节能减排效应。四种典型的产业结构的优化调整路径均有利于增加居民可支配收入与福利。在经济增长保持稳定性增长与劳动要素供给趋紧的大环境下,为实现节能减排、居民收入增长和社会福利提高等多重目标,结构减排与技术减排举措应协同推进。从产业结构调整的节能减排绩效来看,在产业技术升级处于外部导入的初级阶段,应选择产能导向型结构调整路径,在技术内生性增长的高级阶段,应选择以节能减排为导向的调整路径。而为了实现经济发展、收入增长、环境保护与资源节约的长效机制,在技术水平发展到一定阶段,应逐渐实现对产业结构的均衡型优化调整。

This paper established a dynamically computable general equilibrium model of embedded industrial structure adjustment and pollution emission behavior, and simulated China＇s macroeeonomic environment together with industrial economic development potential scenario from 2014 to 2020. Then it evaluated the economic efficiency and energy saving effect of different industrial structure adjustment path. The result showed that the four typical optimization of industrial structure adjustment path are conducive to increase citizens＇ disposable income and welfare. In the environment of economic growth stability and labor supply tighter, the measures of structure and technology emission should be pushed together to actualize multi-objectives of energy conservation and emission reduction, residents＇ income growth as well as social welfare improved. From the performance of energy conservation and emission reduction of industrial structure adjustment, the structural adjustment path of productivity oriented should be chosen in the primary stage of industrial technologies upgrade from external import. Besides, the structural adjustment path of energy conservation and emission reduction oriented should be chosen in the advanced stage of technology endogenous growth. In order to actualize a long-term mechanism of economic development, revenue growth, environmental protection and resource conservation, industrial structure should be optimized and adjusted gradually when the level of technology developed to a certain stage.