美国量化宽松货币政策退出对亚太经济体的影响

Impacts of the Retreating of US Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing Policy on Asia- Pacific Economies

随着美国国内经济形势的好转,量化宽松(QE)货币政策退出已被提上议程,可以根据历史数据研判美国QE退出对亚太经济体可能造成的影响及其传导渠道。脉冲响应结果表明,对于美国QE货币政策的退出,亚太经济体在长期内会表现出货币量收缩、资产价格下跌、实际汇率贬值和贸易余额上升。方差分解结果进一步显示,这一政策退出对亚太经济体的外溢效应主要体现在货币政策和金融市场,对实际汇率和贸易余额的影响则相对有限。作为美国QE货币政策退出冲击的应对措施,亚太国家需要重点防范金融风险。

With the improvement of the economic situation in the US, the retreating of the Quantitative Easing （QE） policy has been put on the agenda. The possible influence brought about by the retreat of US QE policy and the way it spreads can be told from an analysis of related historical data. The study of impulse response shows that with the retreating of US QE policy, Asia - Pacific economies may experience a contraction of the money supply, the falling of the asset prices, depreci- ation of the real exchange rate and a rise in trade balance. Variance decomposition analysis further shows that the spillover effects upon Asia - Pacific economies generated by the retreating of US QE policy can be found mainly in the economies＇ monetary policies and financial markets. The influence upon the real exchange rate and trade balance is comparatively lim- ited. As ways to prevent the impact brought about by the retreating of US QE policy, Asia - Pacific countries need to focus on the prevention of financial risks.