基于PERT图的LMRP集油罩深水井喷应急作业设计

PERT-based design of LMRP cap emergency operation for deepwater blowout

底部隔水管总成(LMRP)集油罩可高效回收深水井喷海底漏油,为有效支持应急演练和事故现场救援的开展,基于计划评审技术(PERT)进行LMRP集油罩应急作业设计。面向1500m水深事故场景,将LMRP集油罩作业分为15项子作业并编制应急作业PERT图,计算LMRP集油罩应急作业在不同规定期限内的完成概率。结果表明:PERT图可直观定量描述深水井喷应急作业,得到LMRP集油罩作业关键路线总时长为57.5h并给出作业优化建议。LMRP集油罩作业在规定期限45、50、55、60、65、70h内完成的概率分别为0.0002、0.0174、0.2420、0.7580、0.9826和0.9998。随着规定期限时间延长,应急作业完成概率提高,且在关键路线总时长附近增长率最大。

LMRP cap technique can efficiently recover seabed oil spill from the deepwater blowout. PERT（ Program Evaluation and Review Technique） was employed to design the emergency operation of LMRP cap. Based on the hypothetical 1500m water depth accident scenario, LMRP cap operation was divided into 15 subjobs, and the PERT charts of LMRP cap emergency operation were presented. Meanwhile, the completion probability of LMRP cap operation within time limit was estimated. The results showed that the PERT chart can visually and quantitatively describe the deepwater blowout emergency operations. The critical path total duration of LMRP cap operation is 57.5h, and the process optimization recommendation is available. The completion probability of LMRP cap operation within time limit from 45 to 70（5b interval） are 0. 0002, 0. 0174, 0. 2420, 0. 7580, 0. 9826, 0. 9998, respectively. Along with the increase of time limit, the completion probability improves and the growth rate reaches the maximum valute nearby the critical path total duration.