我国社会保障支出与金融结构变迁关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Social Security Expenditure and Financial Structure Change in China

本文利用中国1992-2011年间的时间序列和协整分析方法,实证考察了我国社会保障支出对金融结构变迁的影响效果。结果显示社会保障支出显著地影响金融结构的变迁,不断增加的社会保障支出能够显著地提升股票、债券、保险等非货币资产在金融机构总资产中的占比;社会保障支出是引起股票资产占比、债券资产占比、保险资产占比的格兰杰原因,反之,股票资产占比、债券资产占比、保险资产占比不是引起社会保障支出变动的格兰杰原因。

Based on the time series and the method of co -integration analysis from 1992 -2011 of China, the effect of the social security expenditure on the change of the financial structure is investigated. Results show that the social security expenditure has a significant impact on the change of the financial structure. The increasing social security expenditure can increase percentage of stock, bond, insurance, etc. non - monetary assets in the total assets of financial institutions. Social security expenditure is caused stock asset accounted for a share, bond, insurance assets accounted for Granger reason, on the other hand, the stock of assets accounted, bond assets proportion, insurance assets proportion is not the Granger cause of changes in social security spending.