中国西瓜供给反应与存在的问题研究——基于Nerlove模型的实证分析

Research on Watermelon Supply Response and Issues in China——Empirical Analysis Based on Nerlove Model

通过估计中国西瓜供给反应模型参数,发现其短期与长期供给弹性相对农产品而言较高,说明农户西瓜生产对价格的反应较为敏感,价格市场调节功能得到发挥但效果不大。究其原因主要是收购商等中间商扭曲了市场讯号传递,西瓜种植户的生产惯性和风险规避等心理导致生产预期对生产调节的作用不明显,以及西瓜产业本身退出成本高等。针对这些原因,本文提出了需要防止西瓜生产"伪过剩"及建立产销一体化的对策措施。

This paper estimated the parameters of watermelon supply response model and found that short-term and long-term supply elasticity of watermelon were very small,which indicated that the produce reacted weakly with price.In other words,the market regulation function of price did not get to play.The major reasons were that buyers such as middlemen distorted market signals,psychological of famers such as the production inertia and risk aversion led the effects of production expectation on production adjustment were not obvious,and the exit cost of watermelon industry was high.For these reasons,this paper proposed suggestions including preventing watermelon production of pseudo-surplus and establishing integrated production and marketing measures.