宏观经济因素与财产类犯罪的相关性——基于1986～2010年的数据

Macroeconomic Factors and Property Crime in China:——An Empirical Research Based on 1986-2010 Data

财产类犯罪是所有犯罪类别中所占比重最高的犯罪类型,探讨财产类犯罪变迁与社会经济之间的关系有着重要的意义。《中国统计年鉴》、《中国财政年鉴》、《中国法律年鉴》数据表明,社会经济增长水平、收入分配状况、通货膨胀、失业率以及城市化率等宏观经济因素会影响犯罪数量的变化。社会失业率与通货膨胀水平对我国财产类犯罪数量的变迁具有显著影响作用,降低失业率与通货膨胀水平不失成为一种控制我国财产类犯罪数量的新途径。

In China the number of property crime holds the greatest rate among all kinds of crimes, finding out the relationship between the growth of economy and property crime is an important subject to study. The official statistics show that economic growth, personal income distribution, inflation, unem- ployment and urbanization rate will promote the growth of property crime. The unemployment and infla- tion have a significant impact on property crime＇s change, which means decreasing unemployment and re- ducing social inflation would be a new way to control the number of property crimes in China.