后危机时代流动性过剩与通货膨胀的偏离——基于长期通货膨胀趋势的解释视角

The Diverge of Liquidity and Inflation in the After-Crisis Time——Based on the Trend of Inflation Over Time

本文认为此轮流动性过剩没有导致通货膨胀率明显上升的主要原因在长期来看应该是通货膨胀率不断降低的一般规律,在短期来看,资产价格起到了一定作用。本文试图从目标通货膨胀制、央行独立性和全球化的角度解释尽管目前全球出现普遍性的流动性过剩,但是通货膨胀却保持在相对平稳水平的原因。

The paper argues the reason why the liquidity excess did not lead to the acceleration Of inflation in the present time is because that inflation rate will drop over time. However, the asset price plays some roles in short term. We try to explain that why the liquidity excess did not raise the inflation, and we think the most mainly reasons are inflation targeting, the independence of central bank and the globalization.