采棉机全生命周期成本的动态分析

Dynamic analysis of cotton pickers' life cycle cost

以采棉机为研究对象,通过文献和有关企业的调研得到其全生命周期成本数据,分析影响其全生命周期成本的不确定因素主要包括人工成本和油价。采用动态模拟计算方法,比较在油价变化情况下,南北疆使用不同采棉机的成本与利润情况。针对南北疆不同的收费模式,本文对南疆在棉花单产变动的情况下分析采棉机应用中的利润变化趋势,对北疆收费标准提高带来的影响也进行分析。主要结论有:因为利润较大的关系,南疆农机公司对于国产采棉机的使用没有北疆积极,但随着服务价格的上涨,北疆农机公司对国产采棉机的使用也会降低;南疆农机服务公司根据采摘的棉花重量进行收费,比北疆的利润要高,随着棉花单产的增加,其效益更加好;目前看油价上涨和人工成本的上升,对采棉机的应用不会产生较大影响。

This paper mainly focused on cotton pickers＇ life cycle cost （LCC） calculation based on dynamic analysis. Life cycle cost data of cotton pickers were collected by enterprise survey and references. Uncertainty factors of cotton pickers＇ life cycle cost was labor cost and oil price. Then using simulation methods, we analyze different cotton pickers＇ LCC and profit under oil price variation in Xinjiang. Because of different charge mode in Xinjiang, this paper analyzes cotton pickers＇ profit variation trend under per unit yield of cotton in southern Xin- jiang and charging standard improving in northern Xinjiang. Finally, the conclusions were proposed： because agricultural machinery service companies （AMSC） earnings in southern Xinjiang are higher than in northern Xinjiang, southern AMSC use domestic cotton pickers are not more positive than northern AMSC. However, with service price improving, northern AMSC will decrease using domestic cotton pickers. With per unit area yield of cotton increasing, economic benefits of southern AMSC become better than northern AMSC. Oil price and labor cost increasing can not affect cotton pickers＇ application.