山西煤炭开采消费与气温变化的灰色关联分析

Gray Correlation Analysis of Coal Production & Consumption and Temperature Variation in Shanxi Province

利用1961～2011年山西56个气象站点的观测数据和煤炭开采消费资料，采用趋势分析和灰色关联法，对山西煤炭开采消费与气温变化的关系进行了分析。结果表明：（1）51年来山西平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温均呈显著上升趋势，且具有明显的年代际特征，上世纪60年代中期到80年代变化平稳，90年代以后上升加速，近年来又有下降趋势。（2）山西原煤生产整体呈现逐年上升趋势；1975年之前，增加缓慢平稳；1976—2000年增速有所增加；2000年后则加速增加。上世纪80年代以来，山西煤炭消费呈波动上升的趋势，煤炭供需总体平衡。（3）能源外调量在山西能源生产总量中占有主导地位，能源外调量基本是以煤为基础；上世纪80年代到2007年，能源外调量和煤炭外调量呈同步增加的趋势，2008～2009年则有所下降。（4）煤炭加工供热产出和煤炭产量与年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年平均最高气温的相关最为密切；煤炭加3-发电产出和煤炭加工投入总量与年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年平均最高气温相关相关程度相当；能源生产弹性系数与年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年平均最高气温的相关较小。（5）山西煤炭生产消费对气温变化影响的排序为：对年平均最低气温影响最大，年平均气温次之，对年平均最高气温的影响较小。

Based on the meteorological data from 56 observation stations and the coal production ＆ consumption data in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2011, the relations between coal production ＆ consumption and temperature variation in Shanxi Province were analyzed with the trend analysis method and gray correlation method. The results showed： （1） the average temperature, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature of Shanxi Province all showed a significantly increasing trend from 1961 to 2011. But in the background of overall upward, the temperature variation also had decadal features： from the sixties to the eighties of the last century there was a smooth variation trend, in the nineties of the last century the increasing trend was accelerated, in recent years the temperature showed a decreasing trend; （2） the coal production of Shanxi Province showed anincreasing trend year by year. Before 1975 the coal production had increased slowly, from 1976 to 2000 the increasing trend was accelerated, after 2000 the speed was faster. From the eighties of the last century, the coal and power consumption of Shanxi Province showed a fluctuating upward trend, coal supply and demand presented a balance state; （3） energy amount transferred out of Shanxi held a dominant position in the total energy production amount in Shanxi Province, and coal production amount was the base of energy amount transferred out. From the eighties of the last century to 2007, the energy amount transferred out and the coal amount transferred out showed an increasing trend simultaneously. But in 2008 and 2009, the energy amount transferred out and coal amount transferred out decreased; （4） coal heating output and coal production have the closest correlations with annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature and annual average maximum temperature; the correlation of coal power output with annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature and annual average maximum temperature isequivalent to the correlation of coal processing investment amount with annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature and annual average maximum temperature; the energy production elasticity coefficient and power consumption elasticity coefficient have little correlation with annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature and annual average maximum temperature; and （5） the impact sequence （from large to small） of coal produc tion consumption to temperature variation is： annual average minimum temperature, annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature.