层次分析法在建昌盆地油页岩勘查有利区优选中的应用

AHP applation to oil shale exploration optimization in Jianchang Basin

层次分析法综合定性分析与定量分析将复杂的问题用一个逻辑有序的递阶层次结构表示出来,通过经验判断对决策方案的优劣进行排序,建立层次结构模型、构造判断矩阵、层次单排序及一致性检验、层次总排序及一致性检验是其四个基本步骤。通过层次分析的原理,建立了勘查区评价优选层次结构模型,定量计算各层评价指标权重。制约油页岩勘查区勘探开发的因素包括地质条件、开发条件和经济条件地质条件3个方面,其中地质条件是影响油页岩勘查区勘探开发的主要因素。参数层由含油率、主采层厚度、矿层累计厚度、含矿区矿层面积、勘查程度、页岩油资源丰度、技术可采系数、矿体埋深、页岩油可回收资源丰度、地理环境、共伴生可利用矿产11个指标构成,其中含油率、页岩油资源丰度、矿层累计厚度和矿层面积是勘查区评价优选的关键参数,含油率在参数层指标中的权重最大。通过对参数层指标赋值后,加权求和可以得到勘查区综合得分。通过层次分析法对建昌盆地5个油页岩勘查区进行评价优选,敖汉旗大青山和朝阳七道泉子勘查区得分最高,勘探前景最好,其次凌源五家子和建昌碱厂,喀左九佛堂勘查区勘探前景较差。

Analytical Hierarchy Process combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis can ex- press a complex problem as a logical and orderly hierarchical structure, to sort through experienced judgement on the pros and cons of the decision-making program. Establishing a hierarchical structure model, constructing judgement matrix, single hierarchical arrangement and its consistency test, total hier- archical arrangement and its consistency test are its four basic steps. By the principle of analytic hierarchy process, a hierarchical model of the evaluation of the exploration region was established, which can be used to quantitatively calculate the layers of evaluation index weights. Factors that affect the explora- tion and development of oil shale exploratory region include geological conditions, development condi- tions and economic conditions, and Geological conditions are the main factor. Parameter layer includes 11 indicators, oil yield, the main mining thickness, seam cumulative thickness, seam area with mining, exploration extent, shale oil resource abundance, technically recoverable coefficient orebody depth, shale oil recoverable resource abundance, geographic environment of associated minerals. Oil yield with the maximum weight, shale oil resource abundance, ore bed cumulative thickness and ore bed area are key parameters of the evaluation of the exploration region optimization. To sum the various weighted parame- ters after the assignment of evaluation indexes in parameter layer can get composite score of the explora- tion region. By AHP, five oil shale exploration region in Jianchang basin are evaluated. The results show that Daqingshan of Aohanqi and Qidaoquanzi of Chaoyang, which are followed by Wujiazi of Lingyuan and Jianchang of Jianchang, score the highest, and have the best exploratory prospect. Jiufotang of Kazuo shows poor exploratory prospect.