中国苹果进口需求分析

Demand for Imported Apples in China

基于中国进口苹果和国产苹果市场差异化视角,利用2000年1月至2012年7月中国进口苹果主要来源国(智利、美国、新西兰、日本)的苹果贸易数据,应用似然比检验和差异化需求系统模型方法,确定General模型为符合中国进口苹果数据特征的需求函数形式。结果表明,消费者对源自四国进口苹果的支出弹性均为正,其中源自美国苹果的支出缺乏弹性,日本苹果的支出富有弹性,智利和新西兰苹果的支出弹性接近1;智利、美国和新西兰苹果的自价格弹性影响显著,日本苹果的自价格影响不显著;日本和新西兰苹果与美国苹果间存在替代关系,而日本和新西兰苹果与智利苹果间存在互补关系。同时发现,中国苹果进口存在季节性差异。

This paper employs a general differential demand system that nests four alternative import demand specifications to estimate the expenditure elasticity and price elasticity for imported apples from Chile, America, New Zealand and Japan, using monthly Chinese apple import data from January, 2000 to July, 2012. The results showed that the expenditure elasticity was positive and all the own-price elasticity of imported apples were significant except Japanese apples. There was a substitution relationship between Japanese apples and New Zealand apples, as well as American apples. While the relationship between Chilean apples and Japanese apples, as well as New Zealand apples, was complementary. Also, we found that China apple imports were changed in different seasons.