中国林业全要素生产率分析

A Study on Total Factor Productivity of Chinese Forestry

运用非参数的曼奎斯特生产率指数法，测算了中国1995～2011年间的省级林业产业全要素生产率（TFP）。结果表明：TFP呈现出持续小幅波动的增长，受林业主要政策变动的影响，各地区TFP的变化呈现出明显的区域性，但未来持续增长趋势明显；从TFP的分解来看，TFP分解指数的波动幅度大于TFP的波动幅度，技术变化（TECH）与技术效率变化（EFFcH）呈现出相反的特点，从技术效率（PECH）的分解出的纯技术效率变化趋势与技术效率变化相类似都有所提升，但是分解出的规模效率（SECH）大部分时期都是下降的；国家的政策变动对各效率指数变化的影响显著，但是对不同指数作用的时效性会有所不同。根据各地区不同的林业资源禀赋与特点，充分利用各地区呈现出的TFP增长趋势，分别采用有利于改变林业增长方式的政策变动，促进技术进步，保证林业产业的可持续发展。

Using nonparametric Malmquist productivity index method, total factor productivity （TFP） of forestry industry were estimated using provincial input and output data from year 1995 to 2011. The results are： 1, despite there was small fluctuations, aggregated national TFP has been increased since 1995; although provincial TFPs had visible differences, the results suggested the growth trends of TFPs would continue in the future. 2, evidence from the decomposition of TFP showed that the trend of technology changes （TECH） and technical efficiency changes （EFFCH） had bigger fluctuations than TFP＇s; the trend of TECH and EFFCH changed oppositely; TECH was further decomposed into pure technical efficiency change （PECH） and scale efficiency changes （SECH）,of which PECH had similar increasing trend as TECH while SECH fall during most of the study period; 3, national policy had significant influence on TFP and its components. Therefore, in order to promote a sustainable development of China＇s forestry industry, the government needs more than increasing forestry investment. It also needs to conduct different forestry policies by regional differences of TFP.