圈养林麝生长曲线拟合研究

Study on the Growth Model of Forest Musk Deer(Moschus berezorskii)

【目的】探索适合圈养林麝Moschus berezorskii的生长曲线模型。【方法】采用Logistic、Gompertz、Log-modified、Log-logistic、Gauss、幂函数曲线、二次曲线、指数函数、双曲线、负指数函数模型对圈养林麝体重、肩高和体长生长曲线进行拟合,并将实际观测值与拟合值进行验证。【结果】幂函数模型能够很好地拟合圈养林麝体重、肩高和体长的生长过程,其拟合方程分别为y=2.237 2x0.388114(R2=0.992 6),y=28.380 2x0.159911(R2=0.987 5)和y=48.159 5x0.164618(R2=0.961 3)。【结论】圈养林麝生长发育不符合"S型"曲线的生长规律,而是更接近幂函数型。

[Objective] The aim of this study is to detect the growth curve model of the forest musk deer （Moschus berezorskii）. [Method] Logistic, Gompertz, Log-modified, Log-logistic, Gauss, power function, conic, exponential function, hyperbolic function and negative exponential func- tion models were chosen as the candidates for fitting the growth model of bodyweight, shoulder height and body length of the forest musk deer. [Results] Power function model had the best fit- ting performance which could reflect bodyweight, shoulder height and body length growth charac- teristics of the forest musk deer, with fitted equation y = 2. 237 2X~＇a88114 （Rz = 0. 992 6）, y = 28. 380 2x^0.159911 （R^2 =0. 987 5） and y=48. 159 5x^0.164618 （R^2 =0. 961 3）, respectively. [Conclusion] The growth model of bodyweight, shoulder height and body length for the forest musk deer fitted power function curve rather than single S growth curve.