中国经济波动:地区冲击抑或行业冲击?

Economic Fluctuation in China: Regional Shock or Sectorial Shock?

中国经济波动中地区与行业哪一因素更重要?本文试图在不同的加总层次上回答这一问题。我们的实证分析表明,这一问题的答案取决于加总层次。在特定地区特定行业的微观层次,行业因素起主导作用:地区与行业典型冲击幅度相当,但是行业内相关系数更高,从而冲击在行业内的传导能力更强。在宏观层面,地区冲击更为重要:地区冲击幅度大于行业冲击幅度,地区间冲击联系也强于行业间冲击联系。

Which factor is more important to economic fluctuation in China？ Geographical shocks or sectoral shocks？ This pa- per tries to answer the question at different levels of aggregation. Our empirical analysis suggests that： the answer depends on the level of aggregation. At the micro level, a specific sector in a specific region （province）, sector plays the leading role： al- though the typical shocks resulted from geographies and sectors are well-matched in strength, the intra-sector correlations are much higher, as a result, it is much easier for shocks to transmit along the intra-sector linkages. At the macro level, geographi- cal shocks are more important： the magnitude of geographical shocks is larger than that of sectoral shocks; the inter-region cor- relations are also larger than inter-sector correlations.