中国稻飞虱发生的大气环流指示指标

Leading indicators of atmospheric circulation characteristics on rice planthopper occurrence in China

根据1971—2010年稻飞虱发生面积率和发生程度资料,构建综合反映稻飞虱发生为害的因子,定义为稻飞虱发生指数。基于因子膨化方法对74项大气环流特征量进行合理扩充,采用相关分析等方法研究当年2月初、4月初、6月初对全国稻飞虱发生面积率等级、发生程度等级、发生指数等级具有指示意义的大气环流因子的筛选及其相应等级指标的构建。结果表明:影响稻飞虱发生面积率等级的指示因子为西太平洋副高面积指数、南海副高脊线、北半球极涡强度指数、印缅槽,影响稻飞虱发生程度等级的指示因子为太平洋副高北界、亚洲纬向环流指数、东亚槽强度、太阳黑子数,影响稻飞虱发生指数等级的指示因子为北半球副高强度指数、北半球极涡强度指数、大西洋欧洲环流型指数、西藏高原指数。不同指示因子的量值在稻飞虱轻、偏轻、偏重和重发生时差异性显著;建立的稻飞虱发生等级的大气环流指示指标,经历史发生情况检验,对稻飞虱发生等级具有很好的指示效应,可为稻飞虱中长期预测预报提供科学依据。

According to rice planthopper occurrence area ratio, occurrence degree data from 1971 to 2010, a new factor was defined as occurrence index, reflecting the comprehensive damage degree of rice planthopper. Based on 74 atmospheric circulation characteristics data from month to month in 1970-2010, all possible combinations of circulation characteristics were constructed by factor puffing. By means of correlation analysis, leading indicators of national rice planthopper occurrence rank in early February, April and June was established. The results showed that rank indicating factors of national rice planthopper occurrence area ratio included the area index of western pacific subtropical anticyclone, the ridge line of south China sea subtropical anticyclone, the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index and India-Burma trough. The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence degree included the northern boundary of Pacific subtropical anticyclone, Asian zonal circulation index, Asian trough intensity, and sun spots. The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence index included the intensity index of northern hemisphere subtropical anticyclone, the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index, Atlantic European type circulation index and Tibet Plateau index. The values of rank indicators had great differences in light, partially light, partially heavy, and heavy ranks. Rank indicators had a good indication for planthopper occurrence rank, which can provide a scientific basis for long-term forecasting of rice planthopper.