钱塘江流域水资源对厄尔尼诺事件的响应

Response of Water Resources in the Qiantang River Basin to El Nino Event

根据水资源对厄尔尼诺事件的响应，得出了钱塘江流域水资源的统计预报模式：（１）在春季型厄 尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年径流量的距平一般都大于零；（２）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过５月１日，那么次年金华站年径流量的距平一般都大于零；（３）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对钱塘江流域水资源的影响也越大．这对该流域长期及超长期的水资源预报具有重要的指示作用。

According to the response of water resources to the EI Nino event, the formulas of statistical f6recast of water resources in the Qiantang River Basin are given as follows: (1) The anomaly of yearly runoff at Jinhua Station in the same year of EI Nino event of spring season type and the next year of FI Nino event of summer season type is generally greater than zero; (2 ) If the finish time of EI Nino event is over May 1, the anomaly of yearly runoff at Jinhua. Station in the next year is generally greater than zero; (3 ) The greater the intensity of EI Nino event is, the greater the effect on water resources in the Qiantang River Basin is, which is of important directive function for the long-term or over long-term forecast of water resources of in the Qiantang River Basin.