基于区域经济发展视角的煤炭资源合理产能分析与预测

Analysis and forecast on coal resources reasonable productivity based on the view of regional economic development

为了分析和预测煤炭资源的合理产能,以山东省煤炭资源生产情况为背景,采用系统动力学方法,选取煤炭企业成本、利润等因素为主要系统变量,构建了区域内煤炭资源合理产能系统模型,在对模型进行历史仿真检验之后,针对不同的区域经济发展情况,对三种经济方案下的煤炭资源合理产能进行了预测和分析。

In order to analyze and forecast the reasonable productivity of coal resource,a sysG tem model about regional coal resource reasonable productivity is established using system dyG namics method on the background of coal production states in Shandong province. The factors such as production cost of coal enterprise,profit and others are taken as system variables in the model.Reasonable productivity of coal resource is forecasted and analyzed via changing developG ment of the regional economic after the historic simulation checkout.