立即全面放开二胎政策的人口学后果分析

Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy

自20世纪90年代,我国妇女生育水平降至更替水平以下,并长期维持在较低水平,引发了对生育政策调整的热烈讨论。文章利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查等人口数据,推算2012年我国独生子女的规模,并从独生子女的角度估算2012年立即全面放开二胎政策的目标人群,进而测算年度出生人口规模的变动。通过分析发现,由于全面放开二胎政策后新符合政策条件的目标人群规模较大,且妇女生育二胎的意愿仍处于较高水平,我国年度出生人口将在政策变动后急剧增加,出生人口峰值达到4995万,妇女时期生育水平峰值达到4.5左右。但是,立即全面放开二胎可以明显改善我国总人口未来进入负增长的趋势,增加劳动力资源的未来供给,延缓人口老龄化的进程。

Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early ]990s, and has been increasingly lower, arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment. This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national ]% population sampling survey, and analyzes its impact on number of annual births. The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women＇s strong desire to have the sec- ond child, if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy, number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5. However, immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future, increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China.