人口老龄化过程中我国劳动力供给变化特点及面临的挑战

Changes and Challenges of Labour Supply in China in the Context of Population Ageing

我国正在经历老龄化逐步加速的过程。人口老龄化带来的不仅是老年人口规模的增加和比重的增大,而且意味着其它年龄组人口的相应变化,尤其是劳动年龄人口的规模和比重都将会随着老龄化发展而呈现出相应的变化,从而对社会经济发生更为深刻和直接的影响。本研究主要采用联合国人口基金最新预测结果,结合其他相应的数据,分析了老龄化对我国劳动力市场中劳动力供给带来的各种挑战和可能的影响。研究发现:老龄化虽然将会引起劳动年龄人口规模的下降,但在2030年之前下降比较缓慢,而年轻劳动力下降则非常迅速,另外,劳动力本身的老化以及农村日益加剧的老龄化程度都需要引起格外的重视,需要在相关政策的制定方面提前做好必要准备。

China is experiencing an accelerated aging process. Population aging brings not only the changes of the size and proportion of the elderly population but the corresponding changes of the other age groups, especially of the labor-age population group, which has more profound and direct impact on the society and economy. This study uses primarily the United Nations latest population forecasting results to analyze the challenges and possible impacts of aging on labor supplies of the labor market in China. This study shows that although aging would cause a decline in the working-age population, the occurrence of which would be slow before 2030; however, the young labor force would experience a rapid decline. In addition, the aging of the labor force itself, as well as the increasing degree of aging in rural areas call for extra attention, suggesting that it is necessary to prepare relevant policies in ad- vance.