中药初级品及中间品出口东盟的影响因素分析

Analysis on influential factors in China's exports of primary and semi-finished products of traditional Chinese medicine to ASEAN

利用2000—2011年我国对东盟各国出口的面板数据,建立中药初级产品与中间产品出口的回归模型。结果表明中国GDP、人均GDP比值、平均出口价格、国企总资产贡献率显著增加中药初级产品出口额,而人民币升值、三资企业总资产贡献率、东盟GDP、"早期收获"计划及中国-东盟自贸区显著减少其出口。东盟GDP、人均GDP比值对中药中间品出口具有显著作用,前者促进,后者抑制。该文建议稳步扩大初级产品出口,并积极提升资本技术密集度更高的中间产品出口来调整中药出口商品结构。具体政策建议是:提高医药制造业外资质量、发挥国企科技示范作用、强化出口贸易中的议价权、增加对外直接投资。

Two regression models, based on panel data over the period of 2000--2011, are buih and used to analyze what factors determine China＇s exports of primary and semi-finished products of traditional Chinese medicine to ASEAN. The results indicate that, China GDP, the ratio of ASEAN to China GDP per capita, average export price, the ratio of state-owned assets to total assets, have a significant positive influence on the export volumes of primary products of Chinese medicine. At the same time, RMB appreciation, the ratio of three kinds of foreign-invested assets to total assets, China-ASEAN Early Harvest Program, ASEAN-China Free Trade Area have a significant negative influence. In respect of the export volumes of semi-finished products of Chinese medicine, the significant influential factors are ASEAN GDP and the ratio of ASEAN to China GDP per capita. The former is positive and the latter is negative. In order to optimize the commodity composition of experts, it is needed to increase export volumes of both primary and semi-finished products of Chinese medicine. According to the analysis above, some proposals are put forward, such as, improving the performance of foreign capital, playing an exemplary and leading role in technological innovation by state-owned enterprises, taking advantage of bargaining power of suppliers, increasing outward foreign direct investment.