中国汇率、金融抑制与人民币国际化的冲突

China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression:The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency

美联储近乎于零的利率政策放大了世界美元本位的不稳定性,导致有较高汇率水平的新兴市场的恐慌。中国开始加速人民币"国际化"进程,例如:开放国内金融市场,降低其在贸易计价货币和国际支付方面对美元的依赖。但是,尽管人民币离岸市场增长速度很快,中国政府基本上仍为外汇管制政策所困,国内利率层面的金融抑制强化了这一点,金融抑制的目的是为了防止外国资本流入降低人民币资产名义利率水平从而导致的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫。因为浮动汇率(正在升值的)将吸引更多的热钱流入,因此,为了鼓励国内自然的工资上涨以平衡中国的国际竞争力,中国人民银行必须稳定美元对人民币的汇率。但是,人民币进一步国际化及上海自由贸易区将会被拖延,直到世界利率水平上升到自然水平。

Instability in the world dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the U. S. Federal Reserve＇s nearzero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding Renminbi ＂internationalization＂, i. e. , opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. But despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls - reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates - to a- void an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nom- inal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating （appreciating） exchange rate could attract e- ven more hot money inflows, the People＇s Bank of China should focus on tightly stabilizing the yuan/dollar ex- change rate in order to encourage naturally high wage increases for balancing China＇s international competitiveness. But further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.