基于系统动力学的云计算建设规模分析与预估

Analysis and estimation of the cloud computing construction scale based on system dynamics

通过采用系统动力学分析方法建立云计算虚拟环境下的虚拟机的调度方式模型.运用计算机系统仿真手段、系统动力学模型和方法,从系统的角度对云计算虚拟机业务需求和建设规模进行研究,找出了影响云计算虚拟机数量的关键因素.进一步对计算资源池规模建设的决定性因素,使用数理统计理论和方法,提出优化预估建设规模的依据和具体实现,给出回归方程,并验证了预估回归方程的可信性.从而,有效分析了云计算系统的建设规模影响因素,可成功用于预估云计算虚拟环境建设规模,避免了直观简单线性推演的盲目性,优化实现绿色节能,同时促进云计算建设的理论研究并对实践起一定指导作用.

Based on system dynamics modeling method, a computing virtual machines scheduling model was built in virtual environment. With system dynamics methodology and the use of computer system simulation tools, from a systems perspective on cloud computing business requirements and building scale, the key factors in impacting to cloud computing virtual machine number were identified. Furthermore, with regarded to the decisive factor of computing resource pool construction scale, mathematical statistical theory and methods were used to propose optimal estimate and implementation of the scale of construction. The estimate regression equations were given, and the credibility of the regression equation was verified. Thus, influencing factors to the construction scale of cloud computing systems was effective analyzed, and that could be used successfully predicted the cloud computing virtual environments construction scale, which optimized for green energy. The methodology and results involved might gave guide to promote the construction of cloud computing theory and practice at the same time.