中国与中亚五国农产品贸易模式研究

Research on Agricultural Trade Pattern between China and Five Central Asian Countries

本文基于比较优势和技术构成两个方面运用统计描述、指数分析和回归分析方法对2001-2012年双边农产品贸易模式进行了系统考察。研究发现在考察期内双边农产品贸易模式均发生了变化。中亚五国农产品在中国市场比较优势呈现出明显的二元结构,出口日益向低技术附加值农产品集中;中国农产品在中亚五国市场整体竞争力恶化,出口日益向中等技术附加值农产品集中,且整体技术水平呈现下降。目前中国与中亚五国形成的这种双边农产品贸易模式是一种不健康的发展模式,存在很大改进空间,短期来看这种状态仍将持续,长期来看将会发生大的改变,中国当积极主动采取各种措施努力改善。

From the perspectives of comparative advantage and technology composition, this paper uses statistical description, index analysis and regression analysis to investigate the bilateral agricultural products trade pattern during 2001-2012. The research finds that within the inspection period all bilateral agri- cultural products trade patterns changed. The comparative advantage of agricultur- al products from the five central Asian countries in the Chinese market presents an obvious dualistic composition, and their exports get increasingly concentrated on low technology value-added products. The overall competitiveness of China＇ s agricultural products in the five central Asia countries is worsening; China＇ s ex- ports to the five countries becomes increasingly concentrated on middle technology value-added agricultural products, with the overall technology level declining. At present, the bilateral agricultural products trade patterns between China and the five central Asian countries indicate some degree of unhealthy development, and China should take proactive initiatives to seek improvement.