海气随机气候模式及其应用(英文)

AIR-SEA STOCHASTIC CLIMATIC MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

基于能量平衡气候模式 ,考虑了随机力对海 气相互作用的影响和不同时空尺度耦合的作用 ,将描写海温和气温交互作遥随机动力模式化为一个Fokker Planck方程 ,然后用矩阵连分法进行求解 ,并对CO2 增温效应进行了计算 ,当CO2 从 330× 10 -6增加到 6 6 0× 10 -6时增温 1 2K ,模式中存在的优势周期为 (3～ 4)年 ,当CO2

The effects of stochastic forcing on air sea interaction, energy balance climate model is considered. The nonlinear source is dynamical heat transport. The role to coupling different temporal and spatial scales of the atmosphere is examined. A stochastic dynamical model of air sea interaction is derived via the Fokker Planck equation(FPE).The FPE from statistical mechanics is used to obtain a time evolution of the probability density function and the climatic potential function. The matrix continued fraction method (MCFM) is applied to get the solution with which effect of greenhouse gases was calculated.As a result, sea surface temperature rises by 1 2?K,meanwhile the basic period is about 3～4 years and becomes longer on doubling CO 2. [