海峡西岸经济区县域经济空间差异分析

Study on Spatial Variability of Counties' Economy in the Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone

以2006-2010年海峡西岸经济区20个市所辖的152个县的人均GDP为研究指标,利用空间自相关分析的方法,计算Moran’s I指数并绘制出Moran散点图、LISA集聚图、经济空间格局热点演化图,分析海西经济区县域经济的空间分异特征,并对其经济发展敛散情况进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)海西经济区各县市人均GDP存在显著的空间正相关性,经济发展呈集聚态势。(2)Moran散点图中各象限的散点自2009年逐渐向中间聚拢,"海西"地区各县域经济之间的差异缩小,但考虑地理空间相关性之后进行σ收敛检验,发现σ收敛值显著降低,但是并未表现出显著的收敛趋势,表明各县域经济增长的差距又呈现出增长的趋势。(3)"海西"地区经济热点区域主要集中在东部沿海地带,经济冷点区主要位于西部地区。其中,厦门市的中心辐射带动作用高于福州,在其带动下,形成了以三明市、明溪县为中心的次热点中心,有效促进了周边地区的发展。

Based on the per capita GDP data of 152 counties from 2006 to 2010, this paper probes the regional disparity and convergence of the difference of economic development of Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone by means of spatial autocorrelation analysis and through the analysis of Moran＇s I index, Moran scatter plot, LISA cluster map and the econom- ic spatial pattern hot spots evolution figure, which showed that ： （ 1 ） there are a significant positive correlation in the per capita GDP of the counties＇ economy and an obvious spatial cluster character in the economic development; （2） the eco- nomical difference among the counties has reduced since 2009, the spots of each quadrant of scatter plot approached to the center, but the or-convergence number was significantly reduced when we consider the spatial correlation over all cities, without a significant convergence trend, which shows an＇ enlarging trend of the difference among all cities ; （ 3 ） the econom- ic hot spot areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, while the cold spot in the western region. Among them, the leading role of Xiamen is higher than Fuzhou, which helped to form the hot sub-centers in Sanming and Mingxi and further promoted the development of the surrounding area.