金融开放度对跨境资本流动的影响——基于跨国数据的经验研究

Financial Openness and Cross-border Capital Flows: An Empirical Research Based on Transnational Data

为了研究金融开放度对跨境资本流动的影响作用,本文对110个国家或地区1981-2010年年度数据进行了回归分析。研究结果表明:当考虑金融开放度时,新古典经济理论预测与跨国资本流动的特征化事实是一致的,即资本开放的富裕国家存在资本净流出,而资本开放的贫穷国家存在资本净流入;并且,研究表明上述经验结果主要是由外国直接投资和证券组合投资推动的。

To analyze the effect of financial openness on patterns of international capital flows, this paper conducts a regression analysis with data from 110 countries during 1981 to 2010. The results reveal that the prediction of capital flows with the neoclassical theory is accurate if the extent of financial openness is taken into consideration. Specifically, rich countries tend to face net capital in- flows while poor countries are likely to experience net capital outflows under the condition of capital openness. These findings are mainly supported by foreign di- rect investment and portfolio equity investment.