美国经济远没想象中好

The U.S. Economy in Imagination

美国的财政和资产负债表状况确实在变好，但能否支持如此强的经济增长，很值得怀疑。 失业率在下降，股市不断创出新高，房市复苏持续，企业和个人的资产负债表在修复，美联储也启动了QE3削减计划……这一系列的迹象让人们对2014年美国经济信心满满，并对中国的出口怀有了美好的憧憬。

There are seemingly many reasons to be confident in the U.S. economy: the unemployment ratio is declining, the stock market is rising, the property market is reviving, and the balance sheets of enterprises and families are rebalancing. Many institutions and experts predicted that the U.S. economy would grow at nearly 3% in 2014. This is optimistic, and may be over-optimistic. Fiscal cliff has been deemed the main factor which dragged the U.S. economic growth in 2013. But this is not the case. The negative effect led by fiscal factor on economic growth was only 0.4% in 2013. Most of the lag came from other factors, such as the declination of consumption, investment, and exports. The employment ratio has been rising, but it did not boost the consumption. This means that the employment ratio may not be so dependable. The property market is also rising. But the business investment, a more convictive benchmark to reflect the economic viability than real estate, has grown by only 2.5%. Moreover, the Federal Reserve might have been too hasty in quitting the QE3. There may be some policies to adjust the market expectation.