面包虾中副溶血性弧菌温度预测模型的建立

Establishment of growth predictive model of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bread shrimp

为探讨面包虾生产过程中副溶血性弧菌的生长规律,测定了不同温度（10、14、18、22、26、30、37℃）下副溶血性弧菌的生长曲线,运用Origin8.0软件和DMFit软件,分别采用修正Gompertz模型、修正Logistic模型、Baranyi模型对生长曲线进行拟合,建立初级模型。应用平方根模型对由最适生长模型得出的最大比生长速率进行拟合,建立二级生长预测模型。研究结果表明,通过模型检验比较,修正Gompertz模型模型对7种温度培养条件下的拟合度较好（决定系数=0.9917）,进一步拟合所得二级模型拟合度较好（决定系数=0.9687）,得到了最适生长方程,可用于10~37℃温度条件下的面包虾中副溶血性弧菌生长预测。

To study the growth law of V. parahaemolyticus in the process of bread shimp,growth curves under different temperatures（10,14,18,22,26,30,37℃,respectively） were determined. The modified Gompertz,modified Logistic and Baranyi models,respectively,were applied to fit the growth curves by Origin 8.0 software and DMFit software,and the primary model was established. The root-squaring model were used to fit the maximum specific growth rates obtained by the optimum growth model for the establishment of the secongary model. Results showed that the modified Gompertz model was more accurate and useful in fitting V. parahaemolyticus growth curves than the modified Logistic and Baranyi Robert models,respectively（R2=0.9917）. And the secondary model had a high goodness-of-fit（R2=0.9687）. The optimum growth equations were obtained. The modified Gompertz model coulde be used for predicting the growth of V. parahaemolyticus in Bread Shrimp under above temperature condition.