中央投资对中国区域资本流动的影响

The Effect of State Budget Investment on Regional Capital Flow in China

本文通过建立一个两地区新古典经济增长模型,从理论上剖析了中央投资对区域资本流动的影响机制,包括"资本增量效应"和"互补替代效应";并基于1997—2012年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用空间计量模型对以上机制进行实证检验。结果表明:对中国大部分省份而言,中央投资对进入地的资本产生了"挤入效应",但是对北京、内蒙古、黑龙江、青海和新疆产生了"挤出效应",对天津的影响为中性;"挤入效应"与地区经济市场化程度正相关;内蒙古、黑龙江、青海和新疆等地产生"挤出效应"的原因在于地区的市场化程度较低,中央投资抢夺了地区资本的投资机会,而北京和天津主要由于政府投资过量。该研究对确定中央投资的区域投资方向和反思西部大开发战略有所启示:在保障投资效率的前提下可适当增加高"挤入效应"地区的中央投资;应控制对北京、天津的政策性投资规模;若忽略了对西部地区市场软环境的培育,中央投资的效果将大打折扣甚至产生负面作用,这意味着在这些地区"改革"应先行于"投资"。

By building a two-region neoclassical economic growth model, this paper analyze the influence mechanism of state budget investment on inter-regional capital flow theoretically, including ＂capital incremental effect＂ and ＂complementary or substitution effect＂. Then we test the mechanism empirically using spatial econometric model based on China＇s province-level panel data from 1997 to 2012. Some conclusions are obtained： State budget investment has ＂crowding in effect＂ for most provinces in China; however it has ＂crowding out effect＂ for Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Qinghai and Xinjiang, and has neutral effect for Tianjin. The higher the degree of market development, the ＂crowding in effect＂ of state budget investment is stronger. The ＂crowding out effect＂ for Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Qinghai and Xinjiang mainly comes from low degree of market development, and state budget investment crowds out local investment in these places. In contrast, Beijing and Tianjin are mainly due to the excessive government investment. This research provides some implications for investment direction, also some revelations on western China development strategy. We should increase the scale of state budget investment for high ＂crowding in effect＂ area on the premise of ensuring the efficiency of state budget investment. It is necessary to control the scale of state budget investment for Beijing and Tianjin. At the same time, the effect of the investment policy will be greatly reduced or even have opposite effect, while ignoring the cultivation of local market soft environment in western provinces; it means that, the reform should go ahead of investment in these provinces.