最优公共债务规模——基于一个拓展的AK模型的分析

The Optimal Public Debt Scale:An Analysis Based on an Extended AK Model

根据一个拓展的AK模型,理论上可以得出一个最优的公共债务占GDP的比值,且这一比值取决于一国公共资本的产出弹性、公共资本来源于税收的比重、公共债务转化为公共资本的比重以及政府收入占GDP的比重四大因素。我国整体公共债务规模还未触及债务阀值,还存在一定的举债空间,但是,个别地区的公共债务水平已值得警惕,并要紧急"刹车"了。

On the basis of an extended AK model, an optimal ratio of public debt to GDP can be derived in theory. This ratio depends on the four factors, i.e. a country＇s output elasticity of pub- lic capital, the ratio of public capital from tax revenues, the proportion of public debt converting into public capital and the ratio of government revenue to GDP. The overall public debt scale in China has not yet hit the debt threshold, there exists certain room for borrowing money; however, the public debt levels in some regions have been on the edge of danger, which requires an urgent ＂brake＂ .