基于天气预报的光伏输出功率短期预测

Research on short-term prediction of PV output power based on weather forecast

提出一种基于天气预报的光伏输出功率短期预测模型。该模型包括倾斜面辐射基值部分和与气象类型密切相关的光电转化系数值部分。利用地理位置和光伏阵列安装特性计算辐射基值,结合大量历史数据和天气预报状况拟合光电转化系数,得出不同季节、不同气象类型下的光电转化系数值,最后给出了光伏输出功率短期预测模型的数学表达式,并通过实例进行了验证。预测结果表明,该预测模型简单有效,适于工程实际应用,具有较高的精度。

A short-term forecasting model of PV output power is presented based on weather forecast, which includes base value of irradiation on the inclined surface and coefficient value of photoelectric conversion. The radiation base value is calculated according to location and characteristics of PV array＇s installation, a large number of historical data and weather forecasts are used to fit the coefficient of photoelectric conversion, then the coefficient values at different seasons and different weather types are gotten. Finally, mathematical expression of short-term forecasting model for PV output power is listed. The predicted results show that this model is not only simplicity, effectiveness, availability for engineering, but also has high precision.