美国操控黄金价格的利益测算及启示

Interests Calculation of America Manipulating Gold Price and the Implication

本文提出按期末美元币值建立的黄金基准价格模型、美国贸易利益计算模型和价格结构分解模型。计算结果是：1908～2010年间关国黄金贸易赢利561．13亿美元，其中美元与黄金挂钩的1908～1974年间赢利671．86亿美元，脱钩后的1975—2010年间亏损110．72亿美元；测算出2011年和2012年黄金基准价格分别为595美元／盎司和612关元／盎司，可知近年黄金价格严重超越价值，黄金投资存在巨大的市场风险；从累积效应看，黄金跌价是必然大趋势。分解模型的预测结果显示亦然，建议经营者转向应对跌价市场。

This study proposes the measure model of gold benchmark price,the calculation model of America's trade interests and the price decomposition model,using the dollar value at terminal.It shows that America's trade interests from gold are 56.11 billion dollars during 1908 ~ 2010.Concretely,it earns 67.19 billion dollars in the period of 1908 ~ 1974 when the dollar is pegged to gold,but it losses 11.07 billion dollars in the period of 1975 ~ 2010 when the dollar is gradually decoupled from gold.The benchmark price in the year 2011 and 2012 are 595 and 612 dollars per ounce,respectively,from which we can see that gold price is drastically beyond its real value in recent years and the price risk in the investment of gold is huge.Viewed from the cumulative effects,the inevitable price falling trend can also be visible.The yearly predicted gold price by the decomposition model suggests that operators ought to do preparations for the price falling market.