中国与中东欧10国出口产品竞争力及结构效应研究：2002～2011年——基于CMSA模型的实证分析

Relationship of Competitiveness of Exporting Products and Their Structural Effects between China and CEECs during 2002~2011:An Empirical Study based on Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA) Model

虽然中国与中东欧国家近期双边贸易增长迅速，但彼此间贸易依赖程度和绝对市场份额仍较低。为了出口“正确产品”，论文通过恒定市场份额分析（CMSA）模型，基于经济大类（BEC）方法，分析了2002～2011年间产品竞争力和商品结构对双边贸易绩效（即在对方市场份额变化）的影响。实证分析结果表明，双边贸易总效应（总市场份额增加）主要来自于产品竞争力效应，商品结构效应呈中性化。论文为中国与中东欧国家针对不同大类商品在对方不同细分市场竞争力的强弱，调整出口商品结构集中在目标市场进口需求增长更快的产品上提供了相应的依据。

Although China and Central East European Countries(CEEC) have enjoyed a big growth in their bilateral trade,the mutual interdependence and absolute market share between the two areas are still low.In order to export the ' correct products',the paper uses Constant Market Shares Analysis(CMSA) and Broad Economic Categories(BEC) in the paper to analyze the effect of product-competitiveness and goods structure on bilateral trade performance(in other words,their effect on the partner's market share change).The analysis shows that the total effect of bilateral trade(or the increase of total market share) comes mainly from competitiveness of the product.The effect of goods structure is neutralized.CEECs have strong competition in intermediate goods.The paper provides guidelines so that the exporting structure can be bettered and concentrated more on the products that enjoy high needs growth.