中间品进口与经济结构转型

Intermediate Import and Structural Transformation

经济结构转型是当今世界各国面临的重要问题之一。本文利用开放条件下两国两部门模型,研究了中间品进口对一国经济结构变化的影响。理论分析表明,中间品进口的增加能够通过技术和价格两种渠道提升高生产率部门的相对产出,进而带来经济结构的良性变化。跨国面板数据的实证结果表明,总体上说,中间品进口增加能够促进经济结构的变动,但相对于高收入国家而言,促进中间品进口对于中低收入国家经济转型的意义更为重大;同时,从生产工序角度看,来自于下游的中间品进口能够更有效的促进经济结构的优化,这也间接证明了技术渠道是中间品进口对经济结构转型发挥作用的主要渠道。文章结果表明:对中低收入国家而言,现阶段应积极有效地增加中间品进口种类,扩大进口来源国范围以促进经济结构优化;同时,为成功避免"中等收入陷阱",增强自身技术创新能力尤为关键。

Structural transformation is one of the most important problems for many countries today.This paper analyzes the relationship between intermediate import and structural change with a two-sector two-country model in the open economy.The increase of intermediate import can promote structural optimization by raising the relative output of high productivity sector through technology and price channels.When investigating the predications of our model using data for a panel of countries,it finds that intermediate import can promote structural change in general.However,relative to the role on high-income countries,this effect is significant for low and middle income countries.Besides,down-stream intermediate import can play a more important role than up-stream intermediate import on structural transformation.It implies that technology channel is a main channel for structural change.The finding also has implication for government that,as a middle-income country,China should make full use of intermediate import to promote structural transformation at the current stage and do efforts to promote technology innovation in order to avoid the ' middle-income trap' in the future.