规划情景约束下的城市土地利用空间格局模拟

Modeling Urban Land Use Pattern under the Constraints of Land Planning Scenarios

以上海市为例,采用遥感与GIS技术,基于遥感影像及土地利用现状和社会经济统计数据,构建Dyna-CLUE模型模拟土地资源利用规模在土地利用规划政策情景约束下的空间格局,旨在为城市化进程中的土地利用规划实施,特别是土地利用宏观需求的空间配置提供技术思路。结果表明:遥感、GIS和Dyna-CLUE模型的集成应用,可从地理空间上定量刻画土地变化的驱动力,是模拟政策情景约束条件下土地资源空间分配问题的有效手段。

Taking Shanghai City as a case study area and being supported by remote sensing and GIS technologies,this paper employs the raw data including remote sensing images,maps of historical and present land use pattern,annual statistics of social and economy,for building a Dyna-CLUE model that can be used to model the patterns and processes of land use change in future,and then using this model for configuring the spatial pattern of the land use scales in urban land use planning policy scenario constraints.The purpose of this study is to provide a new idea or method reference for urban land use planning,especially for the land use spatial configuration under the macro land use demand scenarios.The result shows that：both the impact of macro socio-economic development situation and driving forces from micro geographic elements to land use expansion should be taken into consideration when urban land use scales are configured to landscape,and the integrated application of remote sensing images,GIS technology and professional models such as Dyna-CLUE,is an effective method to simulate the land resources spatial distribution policy scenario constraints,due to its ability to explain macro and micro driving forces at the viewpoint from geographical space.