2010—2012年城商行经营效率的实证分析

City Commercial Banks Efficiency:An Empirical Analysis for 2010-2012

客观地看待商业银行发展的一般规律,可以认为,经过近十年的高增长之后,随着"宏观经济红利"效应的逐渐减弱,金融生态环境的转变,国内城商行在传统模式下的高增长态势很难长期持续。基于统计分析表明,样本城商行在经历2010—2011年的高速增长之后开始告别盈利高增长、不良双降、资本充足的良好发展态势;与此同时,Malmquist生产率指数的实证分析表明,样本城商行的全要素生产率在经历2010—2011年的稳定增长后开始下降,技术效率及技术进步均出现不同程度的下降。

After nearly a decade of high growth, with gradually weakening effect of ＂macroeconomic dividend＂ and changes of financial environment, the high growth trend of traditional mode is unsustainable for city commercial banks. Statistical analysis showed that after experience of 2010-2011 high-speed growth, the samples of city commercial banks began to bid farewell to the high growth of profits, double down of non-performing loan and abundant capital. Moreover, the empirical analysis of Malmquist index showed that, city commercial banks＇ total factor productivity began to decline after the steady growth between 2010 and 2011.