深圳经济中长期增长趋势研判

On Mid and Long Term Development Trend in Shenzhen

深圳经济增长经验显示,劳动力因素和资本因素对深圳经济增长贡献最大,近十年来,技术进步和制度改革等因素对经济增长的拉动作用逐渐明显。本文运用ARIMA模型预测深圳经济中长期增长速度将逐年放缓。应当围绕创新、产业结构调整、区域合作和人才结构调整,应对可能放缓的经济增长趋势。

Shenzhen economic growth experience shows that the labor and capital factors were the biggest contribution to the economic growth. During the past decade,the technological progress and institutional reform have more and more positive impact on the economic growth.Use ARIMA model to predict the long-trem growth trend of Shenzhen,and find the the rate will be slowdown .So the author proposed the Shenzhen should focus on innovation, industrial restrocion, regional cooperation and restructuring of human capitahn response to the possible slowdown in eeonomic growth.