摘要
参考滑坡、泥石流灾害风险管理,建立落石灾害风险评估与决策过程。以RHRS评价系统为基础,得到危岩崩落及落石抵达威胁区概率;考虑落石灾害造成的人员伤亡、经济损失和环境破坏,提出了相应的概率计算方法,进而得到落石灾害概率,基于泊松分布提出了威胁区内落石灾害年均概率的计算方法。以可接受风险水平和剩余风险水平为主要判据,简要介绍了进行落石灾害风险决策的过程。
In this paper, rockfall hazard risk evaluation referring to risk management of landslide and debris flow. and decision-making procedures was established by Based on RHRS evaluation system, the probability threatened area were gainedand, considering personnel es caused by rockfalt hazard, the methods calculating rockfall hazard probability was further obtained. The of rockfall hazard in threatened area was proposed based on Poisson distribution. Then, taking acceptable risk level and residual risk level as the main criteria, the risk decision-making procedure therefrom was introduced.
出处
《路基工程》
2014年第2期19-23,共5页
Subgrade Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51108488)
重庆市高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划
重庆市博士后科研项目特别资助项目
关键词
落石灾害
泊松分布
风险评估
风险决策
rockfall hazard
Poisson distribution
risk evaluation
risk decision-making
